FXUS63 KGRR 070741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
341 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022


.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022

- Some Fog Possible Early This Morning -

High pressure over northern Lake Superior continues to spread south
this morning leading to light and variable winds and decreasing
cloud cover. This combination of calm winds and clearing skies will
increase fog chances early this morning. HiRes models continue to
suggest the bulk of the fog development across the I-94 corridor
where lingering ground moisture resides due to previous 48 hour
rainfall. Any fog that develops should dissipate shortly after

- Showers Possible Friday -

Rain chances increase late tonight and mainly into Friday
afternoon as a mid-level shortwave pushes into the Ohio Valley.
Large scale deterministic models continue to suggest a more
southerly track for this system, with the bulk of the rain south
of the MI border. Meanwhile HiRes models largely follow that same
story, with the HREF PMM painting the heavier swath of rain to our
south along the CAPE gradient. Thus as the forecast stands, most
areas across lower MI should stay dry through Friday, but some
showers may impact areas near the I-94 corridor where up to 0.25"
of rain is possible. Should there be a more northward push of
CAPE, this axis of heavier rain could track further north towards
southern MI.

- Beautiful Weekend Ahead -

High pressure centered over Lake Superior builds back into the
region late Friday and lasting through the weekend. Dry and pleasant
conditions are expected with generally clear skies and temperatures
in the upper 70s to low 80s. Any trips to the beach this weekend
will be pristine with waves at 1 foot or less thanks to easterly
offshore winds Saturday, and light and variable winds under the
high pressure center Sunday. Altogether, a very pleasant weekend
is expected! Better rain chances return early next week as a
troughing increases while multiple shortwaves drop into the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022

VFR persists across the area this morning but a few patches of
MVFR cigs around 2500-3000 feet have briefly impacted AZO and
BTL with another deck just northwest of MKG. Thus periodic MVFR
conditions may be possible for the next couple of hours.

Fog will be the other concern this morning. Increased moisture across
the I-94 corridor due to rainfall from the last 24 hours may
favor more fog development, thus MVFR visbys were maintained from
the previous TAF iteration.

Any fog that develops should dissipate near sunrise with VFR
expected the rest of the day. Winds will stay light through the


Issued at 341 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Easterly offshore winds will continue to keep higher waves to our
west, but stronger winds Friday night into Saturday may result in
waves nearing 3 feet near Big and Little Sable Points as well as
near South Haven. Winds will then weaken Saturday and Sunday as high
pressure dominates the region.





NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion